On January 1, 2026, the next indexation of the recycling fee for cars came into force in Russia. The changes affected both new and used cars, and experts warn of a possible increase in prices. In December 2025, the government significantly revised the method for calculating the tax: now the rate depends not only on the engine volume, but also on the power of the car. The preferential rate for individuals applies only to cars with engines up to 160 hp, and for all others the rate has been increased many times over.
According to Anton Shaparin, President of the National Automobile Union, the new rules will force manufacturers who do not have localization in Russia to revise their price lists. The increase in the recycling fee will lead to higher prices for cars, primarily imported ones, and some models with a capacity of more than 160 hp may disappear from the market altogether due to parallel imports. The expert notes that Russians may be short of several thousand such cars, which used to be easily imported by individuals.
Alexander Nikolaev, Deputy Director of the Sales Department of Major, adds that the indexation of the recycling fee will be a key factor affecting the cost of cars at the beginning of the year. Nevertheless, he believes that the market will be able to smooth out the impact of this change on the end consumer by increasing the share of localized production. Manufacturers will be able to better control the cost and offer competitive prices, despite the increase in tax.
The increase in price will affect all segments, says Ilya Rashkin, General Director of EM Rus. Even domestic models and deeply localized Chinese cars will rise in price by 5-10%, while the premium segment, cars with a capacity of over 160 hp and imported cars may add up to 20%. Andrey Osipov, Commercial Director of Interleasing Group, clarified that the new rules will also affect electric vehicles, hybrids and compact cars, since China has limited the export of powerful models, and low-power models have become more expensive due to increased demand.
In the used car market, the indexation will mainly affect premium cars three to five years old with engines over 160 hp, which account for about 7.5% of the entire secondary market, notes Sergey Tselikov, head of the Avtostat agency. The increase in prices in the lower segment (cars older than ten years) will depend more on inflation and consumer demand than on the recycling fee.
Andrey Osipov warns that the shortage of new cars may push prices in the secondary market up by 5-10%, and for popular European models - up to 15%. By the end of 2025, before the reform of the recycling fee, Russians were actively buying new cars, which temporarily reduced demand for used cars and led to a drop in prices for them by about 6%.
Roman Titov, Deputy General Director for Used Cars of Avilon Group, adds that the reform of the recycling fee will limit the import of cars older than three years with a capacity of more than 160 hp, which may cause a shortage of Korean, Japanese and European brands in the secondary market. This, in turn, will create additional pressure on used car prices.
Experts agree that buyers should prepare for an increase in the cost of cars, both new and in the secondary market. The indexation of the recycling fee is just one of the factors, but together with the restriction of imports and the increase in the cost of localized models, it can significantly change the balance of power in the Russian car market in 2026.