In the very first days of January, automakers began adjusting their price lists upward, and so far everything indicates that this is not a one-time action but a systemic process. By the start of the first full working week, January 12, it will become clear how large-scale the increase will be.
In the first four days of the new year, several brands announced price revisions at once, including Lada, Moskvich, UAZ, Belgee, Solaris, Chery, Omoda, Tenet, and Tank. Even XCite, which is effectively selling off the remaining warehouse inventory after production was halted, did not refrain from raising prices. This illustrates the overall situation well: price growth is affecting both the mass-market segment and models that are at the final stage of their life cycle.
For now, most adjustments look relatively modest — on average at the level of 2–4%. For the buyer, this may mean an increase of 40,000–80,000 rubles, which many may indeed fail to notice against the background of the overall cost of the car. However, an increase of 100,000–300,000 rubles is already felt much more strongly and can influence the purchase decision. At the same time, it is important to understand that the current changes are only the first steps, which will almost inevitably be followed by new ones.
The Russian market is now overloaded with models, modifications, and trim levels. It is not easy to make sense of this diversity even for professionals, let alone ordinary buyers. For the marketers of car companies, such a situation turns into an ideal environment for manipulating \"benefits,\" \"special offers,\" and temporary discounts, which often merely mask price increases that have already taken place.
Against this background, price growth at the beginning of the year may well become one of the key trends of all of 2026. Moreover, this is not about a one-time spike, but about a gradual yet regular upward movement. Buyers will increasingly face situations where a car that cost one amount a month ago is now offered at a noticeably higher price — even without visible changes in the trim level.
If the ruble exchange rate remains within the current range, then the VAT increase and the recycling fee will most likely be fully included in car prices during the first quarter already. According to estimates, over the next three months, price growth for different models and versions may amount to 2 to 10%. On average, this means 5–6%, which for many popular cars translates into hundreds of thousands of rubles added on top.
Further price dynamics will directly depend on the condition of the car market itself and on fluctuations in the ruble exchange rate against the currencies key to the industry — the dollar and the yuan. A weakening of the national currency can accelerate price growth, while relative stability will only smooth it slightly, but is unlikely to stop it completely.
A separate risk factor remains the policy of the Ministry of Industry and Trade regarding the recycling fee. Traditionally, tariff changes took place in spring, most often in April, and 2026 is unlikely to become an exception. If the ministry once again moves to make adjustments, the market will receive another powerful impulse toward higher prices, and buyers will have to finally get used to the idea that cheap cars are a thing of the past.