Sergey Tselikov, head of the Avtostat analytical agency, shared his vision of what awaits the Russian car market in 2026. According to his assessment, the growth of prices for new cars is almost inevitable and will be due to several factors that have accumulated recently.
Firstly, for most of 2025, automakers restrained official price lists due to large inventory stocks, compensating for the situation with discounts and special offers. At the same time, inflation during this period was noticeable, and now this “delayed” effect will begin to be reflected in prices. Secondly, two increases in the utilization fee rates - from December 1, 2025 and from January 1, 2026 - will directly increase the cost of cars for the end buyer. Additionally, from the beginning of the year, the VAT rate will also increase, which will also be included in the new price lists.
According to Tselikov, in the first half of 2026, average prices for new cars may increase by approximately 10%. At the same time, the growth will not occur at one time, but gradually - as the prices of specific models are revised. At the same time, the expert expects a noticeable decrease in sales at the beginning of the year compared to the second half of 2025: he considers a level of 80–90 thousand cars per month in January–March to be a good result. If the market falls below these values, the prospects for the entire 2026, in his opinion, will look significantly less optimistic.