In Russia, a significant increase in prices for parallel import cars is expected due to changes in the recycling fee. The Ministry of Industry and Trade has proposed a new methodology for calculating the fee, linked to engine power, which may come into force on November 1, 2025. In addition, the government has approved an annual indexation of the fee by 10–20% from January 1 each year until 2030. The first increase of 70–85% already occurred in October 2024. According to experts, these measures will make popular models inaccessible to most buyers.
The President of the National Automobile Union, Anton Shaparin, predicts specific prices for key models from January 1, 2026. The Toyota Camry with a 2.5-liter engine will rise in price to 6.5 million rubles, and by 2030 - to 7.5 million rubles. The Toyota Land Cruiser 300 will cost 13.3 million rubles in 2026 and at least 15 million rubles by 2030. The Mitsubishi Outlander for individuals will increase to 6 million rubles in 2026 and 7 million rubles in 2030. The Zeekr 001 electric car will exceed 10 million rubles from 2026 and 11.5 million rubles by 2030. These calculations take into account parallel imports and current market conditions.
Shaparin emphasizes that such a price increase "excludes the possibility of Russians purchasing such cars" and "destroys" the market, where the average price of a new car is 3 million rubles, including AvtoVAZ models. The recycling fee, according to him, suppresses competition, forcing manufacturers to raise prices even on cars that are not subject to the fee. As a result, the changes risk reducing imports and hitting consumer choice, increasing dependence on local production.