Sales of new passenger cars in Russia in 2026, according to expert estimates, will remain at the 2025 level and amount to about 1.3 million vehicles. This forecast was voiced by representatives of the industry and analytical agencies.
Auto expert Igor Morzharetto said that the baseline scenario of the Avtostat agency does not imply noticeable market fluctuations. According to him, under stable conditions dealers will be able to sell approximately as many cars as a year earlier. At the same time, analysts also allow for an optimistic scenario in which the market will grow to 1.45 million vehicles.
However, there is also a negative scenario. In that case, sales may decline to about 1.2 million vehicles, Morzharetto noted, emphasizing the market's dependence on macroeconomic factors.
The ROAD Association holds a similar position. It expects stagnation without a sharp rise or collapse in sales. Representatives of the association believe that in 2026 the market will retain its current volumes with possible minor deviations in either direction.
Among the key factors that will affect demand, experts cite the availability of car loans, the parameters of state regulation, including the scrappage fee and VAT, as well as overall consumer activity. It is the combination of these conditions that will determine which scenario the car market will follow next year.
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