2026 will be even more challenging for Russian motorists than the previous year. Market participants and auto experts agree: new cars will continue to rise in price, the supply in the secondary market will decrease, and car loan conditions will remain tough. In such a situation, if you need to change your car, it is not advisable to postpone the purchase.
According to the former head of the "Russian Automotive Dealers" association, Oleg Moseev, even the possible return of departed brands will not lead to lower prices. The cost of cars supplied today through parallel imports actually reflects the future price level of official distributors. We should not expect mass-market models to become cheap again: prices have settled at a new level and will not fall lower.
The situation with car loans also remains tense. Rates for new cars look more attractive only due to subsidies from manufacturers, while loans for used cars directly depend on the key rate of the Central Bank and remain expensive. Banks, fearing an increase in delinquencies, are tightening requirements for borrowers and are more often refusing to issue loans.
The editor-in-chief of the magazine "Za Rulem", Maxim Kadakov, believes that 2026 will be more difficult than 2025, and one should not count on improved conditions. In his opinion, the "best times" for buyers are already behind us, and even local assembly does not make cars noticeably cheaper in the 2.5-3 million ruble segment. All hope lies in promotions and subsidies from auto companies.
In the secondary market, prices have stabilized after the overheating of 2022-2023, but a significant increase in supply is not expected. The import of used cars is constrained by the increase in the recycling fee, and demand still exceeds the number of really good cars. 5.5-6 million used cars are sold annually in Russia, and this figure is unlikely to change.
Experts also pay attention to the mileage and age of the car. For small cars, the range of 120-140 thousand km is considered critical, for cars of a higher class the threshold is higher, but other factors are also important, including prestige and overall condition. It is often more economically advantageous to continue operating a newer car with high mileage than an old one, but with smaller numbers on the odometer.
An additional factor is the increase in the cost of repair and maintenance. The Fit Service network of car services expects that by the end of 2026, prices for repair and maintenance will increase by 20-25%. The reasons are the increase in the tax burden, the high cost of borrowed funds, and the shortage of qualified specialists, whose salaries continue to grow.
Spare parts will also become more expensive. According to Moseev's assessment, a possible weakening of the ruble may lead to an increase in prices for imported components by about 20%, since they make up the bulk of the market. Against the background of the fact that most car owners do not plan to change their car in 2026, the demand for complex and expensive repairs will only increase.
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