The future of manual gearboxes is becoming the subject of increasingly active discussion in the automotive industry. According to Frank van Meel, head of BMW M, the development of new manual transmissions is gradually losing its economic rationale. He explains this by saying that modern automatic and automated manual gearboxes now operate more efficiently and are capable of handling higher torque. As a result, manufacturers are increasingly choosing them instead.
Van Meel emphasized that creating new manual gearboxes for a limited market is becoming unprofitable. The development and production of such units require serious costs that are difficult to justify amid declining demand.
However, not all specialists agree with this forecast. Sergei Kleimenov, corporate trainer at Marshall, believes that traditional manual gearboxes with a single-plate clutch will remain relevant as long as internal combustion engines are used in cars. In his view, an "automatic" cannot provide the driver with the same degree of feedback from the car that a "manual" offers.
In addition, installing an automatic transmission increases the cost of the car. The production of such units is more complex and more expensive, which is reflected in the final price of the vehicle. For this reason, many buyers continue to choose cars with a manual gearbox.
Another argument in favor of manual transmissions remains maintenance cost. Repairing automatic transmissions is generally significantly more expensive. That is why some buyers prefer manual gearboxes, counting on more affordable maintenance and repair expenses.
According to Kleimenov, manual gearboxes will remain in demand for a long time in certain segments of machinery and vehicles.
First of all, this concerns construction and road machinery. Excavators, bulldozers, tractors, and other equipment intended for operation off paved roads are still fitted with manual gearboxes.
The second important segment is sports cars. In motorsport, where the driver requires full control over the car and the ability to quickly change gear-shift strategy, the manual transmission remains a sought-after solution.
In addition, manuals retain their position in subcompact and budget cars. The use of a manual gearbox makes it possible to keep the vehicle's market price low while providing acceptable dynamics.
Andrei Belousov, head of a division at the research center "Analitika. Biznes. Pravo", on the contrary, considers Frank van Meel's forecast largely justified, including for the Russian market. According to him, in Russia and in many other countries, motorists have already grown accustomed to automatic transmissions and do not seek to return to manual gear shifting.
This is especially true of the younger generation of drivers. Many of them obtained their driver's licenses in cars already equipped with automatic gearboxes, so using a "manual" is becoming less familiar to them.
Nevertheless, Belousov notes that manual gearboxes will not disappear completely in the coming years. Most likely, they will remain a niche product aimed at certain categories of car enthusiasts. In particular, this concerns racing disciplines and off-road enthusiasts.
A similar assessment is offered by Aleksandr Petrov, director of the partner relations department at the Uremont car service network. He draws attention to the situation in the budget segment of the Russian automotive market. Here, the manual gearbox still remains virtually an uncontested solution.
As an example, he cites the basic version of the Lada Granta, which is equipped with a five-speed manual gearbox and costs about 850,000 rubles. Another example is the Lada Niva Legend with all-wheel drive and a manual transmission. The cost of such a vehicle is about 1.1 million rubles, making it the most affordable all-wheel-drive car on the Russian market.
According to Petrov, as long as demand remains for cars priced at approximately 1.2-1.5 million rubles, manual gearboxes will continue to be in demand.
In Europe, the situation is developing differently. There, demand for cars with manual transmissions is shrinking much faster. One of the reasons is tightening environmental requirements. In addition, it is becoming less and less profitable for manufacturers to develop new manual gearboxes for powerful and expensive cars, demand for which in such a configuration remains limited.
The manual gearbox is unlikely to disappear completely in the near future. However, its role in the market is gradually changing: from a mass-market solution, it is increasingly turning into a specialized product in demand in certain segments of automotive equipment.