Several factors are pushing the Russian car market towards restructuring, and the November sales surge is just the tip of the iceberg. A sharp increase in the utilization fee from December and January, a rise in VAT to 22%, and the freezing of new AvtoVAZ projects are creating conditions in which the market is beginning to reshape literally before our eyes. Experts and industry players see prospects differently: from confident optimism to frankly gloomy forecasts, and this best shows how ambiguous the situation will be in the coming months.
Despite the tax pressure, analysts do not foresee the disappearance of Chinese brands. The key factor is overproduction in China and the need for companies to actively export in order to support sales in the domestic market. According to representatives of ROAD, this means that manufacturers will continue to subsidize loans and give direct discounts, keeping models accessible, at least in the short term. Moreover, the industry anticipates the emergence of new players: SAIC and premium brands of sequential hybrids are mentioned, which are capable of forming niche demand among affluent audiences.
Some experts are confident that the 2026 market can stay in the zone of 1.35–1.4 million cars sold. Others consider this estimate overly optimistic: an increase in the utilization fee, a rise in VAT, and higher costs for logistics, components, and maintenance promise to put pressure on demand at least until spring. The trend towards price increases is already visible: prices are rising gradually but steadily. At the same time, a rapid jump immediately after December 1 should not be expected — warehouse cars imported before the increase will restrain the market for another couple of months. However, after they are exhausted, prices may skyrocket.
The segment of small brands will remain at maximum risk. Dealers say directly that maintaining unprofitable models for the sake of presence in the segment is becoming too expensive. Manufacturers will have to revise their lineups, remove low-margin positions, and look for localization opportunities. This especially applies to brands that still operate exclusively on imports. Companies that have not managed to establish production under Russian standards may not withstand the financial burden in 2026 and leave the market. This primarily concerns brands that do not have utilization fee benefits and operate in niche segments.
Pickups, which are outside the updated requirements for power and utilization fee, will not become a mass salvation. The segment is too narrow, and many models are sold at the break-even point. Even with growing interest from buyers, its impact on the market will remain insignificant. No strong changes are expected in the secondary market yet, but most participants understand that as soon as new cars become even more expensive, prices for used cars will inevitably go up, repeating the scenario of the last two years. In such conditions, the consumer will more actively flow into the segment of used cars, simply because the difference in cost will outgrow the level of common sense.
The increase in VAT to 22% will have a direct impact on the cost of cars, affecting both imported and locally produced models. Dealers' margins in the mass segment are already at the level of a couple of percent, so the industry will not be able to absorb the tax increase at its own expense. Individual manufacturers can theoretically take part of the burden on themselves, but this will not have a significant effect. Experts also expect an increase in the cost of the standard hour in services, which will further hit car owners of all categories.
Companies that have already launched localization have an advantage under the new rules. "Motorinvest" is cited as an example: their Voyah and Evolute sequential hybrids receive a noticeable gain from the recalculation of the utilization fee, which is already reflected in sales. However, even here, experts do not expect a mass breakthrough: the declared production capacities are far away, and the overall market background is overloaded with uncertainty and risks.
Among the forecasts for 2026, the range is huge: from optimistic 1.5 million cars to pessimistic 850 thousand. Specialists who are inclined to more stringent assessments remind of the accompanying factors — the increase in the cost of fuel, spare parts, maintenance, stricter parking rules, and a decrease in the purchasing power of the population. Against this background, even some localized brands may face financial gaps. Some dealers admit that if a buyer were found, many would gladly sell their business, but there are few willing ones.
The conclusion of most experts agrees on one thing: if buying a new car is an urgent necessity, the optimal moment was November and remains December. After the New Year, even warehouse stocks will become more expensive, and discount and support programs will turn into a lottery. Those who can continue to drive their car are better off postponing the purchase — the risk of overpaying is enormous. And if the purchase of a new car is inevitable for someone, experts advise to carefully look towards direct purchases abroad: the price difference with officially supplied models has become too great to ignore.
